HITBrier 0.891

Web search results show 'LME Aluminium Cash Prices Soar Through $3,300/Tonne' dated March 27, 2026, within evidence window March 16 - April 15, 2026. Actual: $3,300, Required: $2,400. $3,300 > $2,400 therefore threshold met. Multiple articles confirm aluminum price surge during the period due to Iran strikes on Gulf smelters.

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Market

LONG correctAL

Aluminum futures (AL) will close above $2,400 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz brinkmanship (67% escalation probability) and China infrastructure stimulus drive industrial metals demand

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-16 at 6% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-17. Brier score 0.891.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis showing Strait of Hormuz Crisis has 67% escalation probability and China supply chain disruption knowledge bank entries. Aluminum is uncovered in pending predictions. 30-day timeframe performs best historically.

Probability: 6%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 15167d ago
Made: Mar 16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Aluminum futures will close above $2,650 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as wartime regime supply disruption expectations build ahead of the Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence

market20%HIT

Aluminum futures will close above $2,400 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as energy-intensive metal production faces pressure from European energy security concerns and potential supply chain rerouting

market55%HIT

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Aluminum futures (AL) will close above $2,400 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz brinkmanship (67% escalation probability) and China infrastructure stimulus drive industrial metals demand

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