HITBrier 0.205

Evidence found of aluminum price surge. Reuters article from March 27, 2026 titled 'LME Aluminium Cash Prices Soar Through $3,300/Tonne' indicates aluminum cash prices exceeded $3,300/tonne, which is well above the $2,400 target. Additional Reuters articles from March 19, 26, and 30, 2026 confirm supply disruptions and price spikes due to Iran war impacts on aluminum supply chains. The $3,300+ level on March 27 alone satisfies the requirement of closing above $2,400 on at least 2 trading days. Actual: >$3,300, Required: $2,400, $3,300 > $2,400 therefore threshold met.

Resolved Apr 22, 2026

Market

LONG correctAL

Aluminum futures will close above $2,400 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as energy-intensive metal production faces pressure from European energy security concerns and potential supply chain rerouting

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 55% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-22. Brier score 0.205.

Derived from: European Union Commission intelligence showing 'EU Commission is actively managing multiple crises simultaneously: responding to sustained energy price pressures through intervention measures.' Aluminum is energy-intensive to produce, European energy costs create supply constraints.

Probability: 55%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 22160d ago
Made: Mar 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Aluminum futures will close above $2,650 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as wartime regime supply disruption expectations build ahead of the Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence

market20%HIT

Aluminum futures (AL) will close above $2,400 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz brinkmanship (67% escalation probability) and China infrastructure stimulus drive industrial metals demand

market6%HIT

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Aluminum futures will close above $2,400 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as energy-intensive metal production faces pressure from European energy security concerns and potential supply chain rerouting

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