HITBrier 0.632

Aluminum futures data shows prices well above $2,650 throughout the evidence window (March 18-25): March 18: $3,282.25, March 19: $3,119.75, March 20: $3,102, March 23: $3,076, March 24: $3,142. All 5 trading days closed above $2,650. Actual: 5 days, Required: at least 2 days, 5 ≥ 2 therefore threshold MET. However, I need to recalculate - this should be threshold_met = true.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Market

LONG correctAL

Aluminum futures will close above $2,650 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as wartime regime supply disruption expectations build ahead of the Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 20% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.632.

Derived from: Mars-Saturn Conjunction + Day of the Sun (DPRK) + Rosh Chodesh Iyyar convergence on 2026-04-14 with intensity 4/5. Current wartime regime status indicates supply chain disruption premium should be building. Aluminum critical for defense industrial complex mentioned in risk scenarios. Base rate assumptions for commodity moves, but significantly reduced confidence due to calibration showing poor performance in 7-day timeframe (Brier 0.260) and overconfidence in medium band.

Probability: 20%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Aluminum futures (AL) will close above $2,400 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz brinkmanship (67% escalation probability) and China infrastructure stimulus drive industrial metals demand

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Aluminum futures will close above $2,400 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as energy-intensive metal production faces pressure from European energy security concerns and potential supply chain rerouting

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Aluminum futures will close above $2,650 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as wartime regime supply disruption expectations build ahead of the Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence

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