Chevron (CVX) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz escalation risk (67% probability per Bayesian analysis) and the fragile OPEC+ Saudi-cut/SPR-release equilibrium push energy equities higher (target above $213.85, 5% from $203.67 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 76% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-06.

Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis (67% escalation probability, sufficient bargaining range 50%) and OPEC+ Production Decision fragile equilibrium (saudi: Cut production, us: Release SPR)

Probability

76%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Oct 6in 7d

Made

Sep 22

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.