MISSBrier 0.582

Data-resolved: CVX, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-22 through 2026-10-06. Target: above 213.85. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 207.62 (2026-10-06).

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Market

LONG correctCVX

Chevron (CVX) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz escalation risk (67% probability per Bayesian analysis) and the fragile OPEC+ Saudi-cut/SPR-release equilibrium push energy equities higher (target above $213.85, 5% from $203.67 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 76% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-07. Brier score 0.582.

Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis (67% escalation probability, sufficient bargaining range 50%) and OPEC+ Production Decision fragile equilibrium (saudi: Cut production, us: Release SPR)

Probability: 76%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 68d ago
Made: Sep 22

Price Target$213.85

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

CVX (Chevron) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $219.03, 5% from $208.60 at creation)

market39%MISS

CVX will close at least 3% above its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 9, 2026 (target above $218.34, 3% from $211.98 at creation)

market65%

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