MISSBrier 0.150

Data-resolved: CVX moved from 208.60 to 209.51 (0.44%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 219.03. Target not reached. High was 217.78.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG correctCVX

CVX (Chevron) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $219.03, 5% from $208.60 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.150.

Confirmed Hormuz mine/seizure incidents and sustained oil war-premium (USO confirmed above $130, Brent confirmed above $90) support upside in integrated energy majors with upstream exposure.

Probability: 39%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$219.03

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Chevron (CVX) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz escalation risk (67% probability per Bayesian analysis) and the fragile OPEC+ Saudi-cut/SPR-release equilibrium push energy equities higher (target above $213.85, 5% from $203.67 at creation)

market76%

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CVX (Chevron) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $219.03, 5% from $208.60 at creation)

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