Multiple news sources from the prediction window (March 28-April 11, 2026) confirm oil prices dropped 'below $95' and 'under $95/bbl' during this period. Headlines include 'Oil Prices Plunge Below $95 as Trump Announces Iran Ceasefire' (April 8), 'Crude oil prices drop under $95/bbl as hopes emerge on potential US-Iran peace talks' (April 15), and 'Crude oil prices tank to under $95/bbl after Trump's two-week ceasefire deal with Iran' (April 8). The BZ ticker returned ETF proxy prices around $13-14 which cannot be compared to actual crude prices. Required: at least 3 days above $95, Actual: 0 days confirmed above $95 (prices fell below $95), therefore threshold NOT met.
Resolved Apr 15, 2026
Market
LONG wrongBZ
Brent crude oil futures will trade above $95 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaign against Israel and documented Strait of Hormuz closure create sustained supply disruption beyond current market pricing
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-28 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-15. Brier score 0.010.
Derived from: Knowledge bank confirms 'Iran unleashes fiery revenge on Gulf oil hubs' and 'Strait of Hormuz Closure Drives Brent Above $110' with IRGC conducting 81+ documented strike waves. Wartime regime detection shows active military conflict with chokepoint closures - models are invalid for diplomatic resolution scenarios.
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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.