MISSBrier 0.010

Brent crude (BZ=F) price data shows closes during evidence window April 1-May 1: Apr 1: $101.16, Apr 2: $109.03, Apr 6: $109.77, Apr 7: $109.27, Apr 8: $94.75, Apr 9: $95.92, Apr 10: $95.20, Apr 13: $99.36, Apr 14: $94.79, Apr 15: $94.93, Apr 16: $99.39, Apr 17: $90.38, Apr 20: $95.48, Apr 21: $98.48, Apr 22: $101.91, Apr 23: $105.07, Apr 24: $105.33, Apr 27: $108.23, Apr 28: $111.26, Apr 29: $118.03, May 1: $111.01. Highest close was $118.03 on April 29, but no trading day closed above $115. Days above $115: 0. Required: at least 4. 0 < 4 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved May 1, 2026

Market

LONG wrongBZ

Brent crude oil will close above $115 per barrel on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations and Hormuz chokepoint threats create sustained supply disruption premium despite SPR releases

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-01 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-05-01. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: Confirmed wartime regime with Iran IRGC conducting sustained offensive operations, Strait of Hormuz Crisis escalation probability at 67%, OPEC+ Production Decision fragile equilibrium, and historical precedent showing Brent sustained above $115 during major Middle East supply disruptions. Oil volatility (OVX) already confirmed above 120, indicating market pricing major disruption scenarios.

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: May 1151d ago
Made: Apr 1

Price Target$115

Brent crude oil futures will trade above $95 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaign against Israel and documented Strait of Hormuz closure create sustained supply disruption beyond current market pricing

market10%MISS

Brent crude oil futures will close above $95 per barrel on at least 5 trading days within 30 days as Iranian attacks on regional oil infrastructure and collapsed Iran-Israel bargaining range (0% per Bayesian analysis) drive supply disruption premiums

market10%MISS

Brent crude oil futures will trade above $95 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Iranian conflict escalation disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes

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Brent crude oil will close above $115 per barrel on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations and Hormuz chokepoint threats create sustained supply disruption premium despite SPR releases

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