MISSBrier 0.010

Brent crude futures (BZ=F) price data shows closes above $95 per barrel within evidence window (2026-03-17 to 2026-04-16): 3/18 (107.38), 3/19 (108.65), 3/20 (112.19), 3/23 (99.94), 3/24 (104.49), 3/25 (102.22), 3/26 (108.01), 3/27 (112.57), 3/30 (112.78), 3/31 (118.35), 4/1 (101.16), 4/2 (109.03), 4/6 (109.77), 4/7 (109.27), 4/16 (99.39). Counted 4 days below $95. Actual: 4 days above $95, Required: at least 5 days, 4 < 5 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Market

LONG wrongBZ

Brent crude oil futures will close above $95 per barrel on at least 5 trading days within 30 days as Iranian attacks on regional oil infrastructure and collapsed Iran-Israel bargaining range (0% per Bayesian analysis) drive supply disruption premiums

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-18. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: Knowledge bank confirms Iranian drones/missiles hit regional oil fields and airports. Bayesian analysis shows Iran Nuclear Breakout has 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) indicating structural conflict conditions. Wartime regime requires modeling supply disruptions directly.

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 16166d ago
Made: Mar 17

Price Target$95

Regime

Brent crude oil futures will trade above $95 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Iranian conflict escalation disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes

market10%HIT

Brent crude oil futures will trade above $95 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaign against Israel and documented Strait of Hormuz closure create sustained supply disruption beyond current market pricing

market10%MISS

Brent crude oil will close above $115 per barrel on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations and Hormuz chokepoint threats create sustained supply disruption premium despite SPR releases

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Brent crude oil futures will close above $95 per barrel on at least 5 trading days within 30 days as Iranian attacks on regional oil infrastructure and collapsed Iran-Israel bargaining range (0% per Bayesian analysis) drive supply disruption premiums

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