HITBrier 0.816

Web search shows Brent crude traded above $95/barrel during prediction window. Specific evidence: 'Brent slips to $96.5/bbl' (April 14), 'Brent $96, WTI $98' (March 26), 'Brent Crude Near $96' (April 12), 'Oil Prices Plunge Below $95' (April 8 - indicating it was above before plunging). Articles show prices around $96-98 range with multiple references to levels above $95. At least 3 trading days requirement appears met based on sustained elevated pricing throughout the period.

Resolved Apr 15, 2026

Market

LONG correctBZ

Brent crude oil futures will trade above $95 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Iranian conflict escalation disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-15 at 10% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-15. Brier score 0.816.

Derived from: Wartime regime detection + Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout showing 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) + Live Intelligence on Strait of Hormuz tensions + Historical base rate for chokepoint disruption adjusted upward due to active conflict

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 14168d ago
Made: Mar 15

Price Target$95

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Brent crude oil futures will close above $95 per barrel on at least 5 trading days within 30 days as Iranian attacks on regional oil infrastructure and collapsed Iran-Israel bargaining range (0% per Bayesian analysis) drive supply disruption premiums

market10%MISS

Brent crude oil futures will trade above $95 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaign against Israel and documented Strait of Hormuz closure create sustained supply disruption beyond current market pricing

market10%MISS

Brent crude oil will close above $115 per barrel on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations and Hormuz chokepoint threats create sustained supply disruption premium despite SPR releases

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Brent crude oil futures will trade above $95 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Iranian conflict escalation disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes

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