HITBrier 0.045

Reuters (wire tier, Sep 9, 2026, within window): 'Iran and US hit tankers in biggest wave of attacks on shipping since war began' - confirms a completed incident of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz region. Additional corroboration: Al Jazeera (wire tier, Sep 9) 'Why US-Iran war over Hormuz is threatening the Gulf's waters'; rivieramm.com (other tier, Sep 18) reports multiple tankers attacked over 48 hours. Wire-tier confirmation of a completed incident within the Sep6-20 window satisfies the threshold.

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Geopolitical

Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one additional confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, continuing the confirmed pattern of prior windows.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 79% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.045.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability (67%), sufficient-but-fragile 50% bargaining range, and multiple wire-confirmed prior incidents (UAE tanker attack, mine clearance by CENTCOM).

Probability: 79%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Houthi forces will conduct at least one confirmed attack (missile, drone, or vessel seizure attempt) on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

geopolitical78%HIT

Iran will NOT undergo a leadership change by September 30, 2026, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 3% by our modestly higher assessment given the elevated 80% overall escalation risk score and IRGC actor intelligence showing active escalation mode following senior naval leadership losses.

geopolitical38%

The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September 2026 meeting (no cut, no hike), consistent with our 55% probability assessment versus the Polymarket crowd's evenly split 50%/50% pricing across the hold/hike markets, based on the confirmed pattern of hawkish holds established at the July meeting.

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Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one additional confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, continuing the confirmed pattern of prior windows.

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