Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one additional confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, continuing the confirmed pattern of prior windows.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 79% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.045.
Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability (67%), sufficient-but-fragile 50% bargaining range, and multiple wire-confirmed prior incidents (UAE tanker attack, mine clearance by CENTCOM).
- Probability
- 79%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 209d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.