HITBrier 0.047

Wire-tier Reuters (Sept 17, 2026): 'Saudis and Houthis exchange strikes, Yemenis flee by boat as Middle East war spreads' confirms actual Houthi missile/strike activity within the Sept 6-20 window. Wire-tier Al Jazeera (Sept 13, 2026): 'Red Sea nations watch as Houthis seize Bab al-Mandeb strait' confirms Houthi seizure of the critical shipping chokepoint, directly threatening commercial/naval shipping. Both are past-tense, wire-tier confirmations within the evidence window, meeting the 'at least one confirmed attack or seizure attempt' threshold.

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Geopolitical

Houthi forces will conduct at least one confirmed attack (missile, drone, or vessel seizure attempt) on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 78% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.047.

Derived from: Red Sea Shipping Crisis Nash equilibrium (Iran maintains Houthi support, US naval convoy escorts, mixed, 2 equilibria), prior confirmed pattern of Houthi attacks on shipping.

Probability: 78%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one additional confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, continuing the confirmed pattern of prior windows.

geopolitical79%HIT

Iran will NOT undergo a leadership change by September 30, 2026, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 3% by our modestly higher assessment given the elevated 80% overall escalation risk score and IRGC actor intelligence showing active escalation mode following senior naval leadership losses.

geopolitical38%

The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September 2026 meeting (no cut, no hike), consistent with our 55% probability assessment versus the Polymarket crowd's evenly split 50%/50% pricing across the hold/hike markets, based on the confirmed pattern of hawkish holds established at the July meeting.

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Houthi forces will conduct at least one confirmed attack (missile, drone, or vessel seizure attempt) on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

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