Wire-tier Reuters (Sept 17, 2026): 'Saudis and Houthis exchange strikes, Yemenis flee by boat as Middle East war spreads' confirms actual Houthi missile/strike activity within the Sept 6-20 window. Wire-tier Al Jazeera (Sept 13, 2026): 'Red Sea nations watch as Houthis seize Bab al-Mandeb strait' confirms Houthi seizure of the critical shipping chokepoint, directly threatening commercial/naval shipping. Both are past-tense, wire-tier confirmations within the evidence window, meeting the 'at least one confirmed attack or seizure attempt' threshold.
Resolved Sep 25, 2026
Geopolitical
Houthi forces will conduct at least one confirmed attack (missile, drone, or vessel seizure attempt) on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 78% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.047.
Derived from: Red Sea Shipping Crisis Nash equilibrium (Iran maintains Houthi support, US naval convoy escorts, mixed, 2 equilibria), prior confirmed pattern of Houthi attacks on shipping.
Probability
78%
Timeframe
14 days
Deadline
Sep 209d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.