The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September 2026 meeting (no cut, no hike), consistent with our 55% probability assessment versus the Polymarket crowd's evenly split 50%/50% pricing across the hold/hike markets, based on the confirmed pattern of hawkish holds established at the July meeting.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 16% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Mirrors Polymarket markets 2252244/2252245; grounded in the previously confirmed Fed hawkish-hold pattern (July 2026 meeting) and the thesis's Fed Rate Cycle Pivot bearish Nash equilibrium (hawkish hold + guidance).

Probability

16%

Timeframe

10 days

Deadline

Sep 1613d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.