Natural gas storage levels in the EU will be reported at below 40% capacity within 30 days as confirmed Hormuz disruptions and Iran infrastructure attacks force accelerated strategic reserve drawdowns

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-24. Brier score 0.151.

Derived from: Live intelligence confirms 'Strasse von Hormus ist quasi dicht' (Hormuz Strait is basically closed) and 'fresh strikes target infrastructure'. European Energy Security scenarios in game theory analysis. Wartime regime requires modeling direct supply disruption. 30-day timeframe shows best historical Brier score (0.212).

Probability: 39%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 16166d ago
Made: Mar 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

European natural gas storage levels will be reported below 35% capacity within 30 days as wartime regime disrupts alternative supply arrangements and winter drawdowns accelerate

market58%HIT

European natural gas storage levels will drop below 65% capacity within 30 days as Russia-Ukraine War Endgame scenario drives energy security concerns despite sufficient Fearon bargaining range

market64%MISS

European natural gas storage levels will drop below 60% capacity within 7 days as Russia-Ukraine War Endgame Nash equilibrium instability (fragile outcome, 36% escalation probability) triggers accelerated winter draw-down amid supply uncertainty

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Natural gas storage levels in the EU will be reported at below 40% capacity within 30 days as confirmed Hormuz disruptions and Iran infrastructure attacks force accelerated strategic reserve drawdowns

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