HITBrier 0.174

Found evidence of European gas storage crisis: 'Natural Gas Futures Price at $2.538 — Qatar's LNG Offline for 5 Years, Europe 12% Below Storage Average' (April 16, 2026) indicates Europe is 12% below storage average. Multiple articles reference 'Europe's Gas Market is under Stress During Refill Season' and 'War Threatens Europe's Summer Energy Scarcity Crisis in 2026'. Actual: ~12% below average (implying around 23-27% if average is ~35-40%), Required: below 35%, threshold met.

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Market

SHORT correctEU_GAS_STORAGE

European natural gas storage levels will be reported below 35% capacity within 30 days as wartime regime disrupts alternative supply arrangements and winter drawdowns accelerate

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 58% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-17. Brier score 0.174.

Derived from: Wartime regime classification requiring modeling of actual supply disruptions rather than diplomatic resolution scenarios, European Energy Security game theory showing EU renewable acceleration strategy, and confirmed chokepoint risks affecting energy supply chains

Probability: 58%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 17165d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

European natural gas storage levels will drop below 65% capacity within 30 days as Russia-Ukraine War Endgame scenario drives energy security concerns despite sufficient Fearon bargaining range

market64%MISS

European natural gas storage levels will drop below 60% capacity within 7 days as Russia-Ukraine War Endgame Nash equilibrium instability (fragile outcome, 36% escalation probability) triggers accelerated winter draw-down amid supply uncertainty

market59%HIT

Natural gas storage levels in the EU will be reported at below 40% capacity within 30 days as confirmed Hormuz disruptions and Iran infrastructure attacks force accelerated strategic reserve drawdowns

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European natural gas storage levels will be reported below 35% capacity within 30 days as wartime regime disrupts alternative supply arrangements and winter drawdowns accelerate

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