Market
LONGSLBPendingSLB (Schlumberger) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz-linked oil price risk premium disproportionately benefits Middle East-exposed energy service names (target above $54.19, 6% from $51.12 at creation)
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 80% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-05.
Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis: 67% escalation probability, sufficient bargaining range but elevated tail risk per risk scenario 1 (35% probability of kinetic action)
- Probability
- 80%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Oct 5in 6d
- Made
Price Target$54.19
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.