MISSBrier 0.151

Data-resolved: SLB moved from 57.51 to 51.12 (-11.11%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: above 60.96. Target not reached. High was 59.25.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongSLB

Schlumberger (SLB) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $60.96, 6% from $57.51 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.151.

Derived from the Strait of Hormuz Bayesian crisis (67% escalation probability, sufficient bargaining range but repeated confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents already resolved as TRUE), sustaining elevated crude prices and oilfield services activity.

Probability: 39%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$60.96

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SLB (Schlumberger) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz-linked oil price risk premium disproportionately benefits Middle East-exposed energy service names (target above $54.19, 6% from $51.12 at creation)

market80%

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Schlumberger (SLB) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $60.96, 6% from $57.51 at creation)

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