The MSCI World Energy Index will outperform MSCI World by more than 8 percentage points within 14 days as confirmed Hormuz supply disruption creates energy sector rotation

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-26 at 77% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-17. Brier score 0.594.

Derived from: WARTIME regime with confirmed Strait of Hormuz closure and energy infrastructure attacks documented. OVX crude oil volatility index above 120 (highest since April 2020). Energy sector outperformance is mechanical consequence of supply disruption in active conflict, not speculative positioning.

Probability

77%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Apr 9173d ago

Made

Mar 26

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.