PARTIALBrier 0.442

IDR/USD price data shows current price of 0.000058346 as of April 19, 2026. Examining daily closes from March 20-April 19: all values ranged from 0.000058162 to 0.000059425, with the highest close being 0.000059294 on March 23. Actual highest: 0.000059425, Required: 0.000065, 0.000059425 < 0.000065 therefore threshold NOT met. The rupiah did weaken (IDR/USD declined) as predicted directionally, but never reached the 0.000065 threshold on any trading day. Geopolitical evidence confirms active Strait of Hormuz crisis during prediction window per multiple news sources.

Resolved Apr 19, 2026

Market

SHORT correctIDR

Indonesian Rupiah (IDR/USD) will weaken above 0.000065 (below 15,385 USD/IDR) on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Nash equilibrium (67% escalation probability) threatens regional shipping lanes

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 66% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-19. Brier score 0.442.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory shows Strait of Hormuz Crisis has 67% escalation probability. Indonesia's trade-dependent economy vulnerable to shipping disruptions. Strait of Malacca alternative routes increase costs. Base rate: major FX pair moves 1.5%+ in a week at 71%.

Probability: 66%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 19163d ago
Made: Mar 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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