US will announce the end of the Iranian blockade in the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 18% with our lower assessment.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining range is 0% (structural conflict likely) and Hormuz escalation probability sits at 67% with confirmed mine/seizure incidents already resolved this window; a formal blockade-end announcement is unlikely given the collapsed bargaining range.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 24 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and Ukraine will sign a comprehensive ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 27% with our higher assessment.

geopolitical14%

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report at least one single day with 15 or more PLA aircraft incursions into its ADIZ within 14 days.

geopolitical73%HIT

China will announce a new export control, sanction, or blacklist action targeting a named US company within 30 days.

geopolitical32%

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Houthi forces will conduct at least one confirmed attack (missile, drone, or vessel seizure attempt) on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

geopolitical78%HIT

US will announce the end of the Iranian blockade in the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 18% with our lower assessment.

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