HITBrier 0.072

Taiwan News (other-tier, but reporting direct MND tallies) recorded: Sept 6: 21 aircraft; Sept 17: 19 aircraft; Sept 18: 28 aircraft; Sept 19: 20 aircraft -- all within the Sept 6-20 evidence window and all exceeding the 15-aircraft single-day threshold (e.g., 28 > 15 on Sept 18). No official/wire-tier source was found, but the consistent numeric MND-sourced reporting across multiple days provides strong direct evidence the threshold was met (28 aircraft >> 15 required).

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG correct

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report at least one single day with 15 or more PLA aircraft incursions into its ADIZ within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 73% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.072.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis shows the dominant equilibrium (China: gray zone escalation, US: economic deterrence, p=100%) remains active with fragile 30% coalition stability and critical fracture risk, consistent with the recently confirmed pattern of elevated daily PLA aircraft/vessel activity.

Probability: 73%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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US will announce the end of the Iranian blockade in the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 18% with our lower assessment.

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Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report at least one single day with 15 or more PLA aircraft incursions into its ADIZ within 14 days.

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