Russia and Ukraine will sign a comprehensive ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 27% with our higher assessment.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 14% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-31.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine Endgame model shows a sufficient 50% bargaining range with 91% probability weight on the stable 'Russia negotiates from strength / US pushes negotiated settlement' equilibrium (bullish, 78% confidence), a stronger structural signal for resolution than the crowd's pricing reflects.

Probability: 14%
Timeframe: 116 days
Deadline: Dec 31in 93d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

US will announce the end of the Iranian blockade in the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 18% with our lower assessment.

geopolitical5%

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report at least one single day with 15 or more PLA aircraft incursions into its ADIZ within 14 days.

geopolitical73%HIT

China will announce a new export control, sanction, or blacklist action targeting a named US company within 30 days.

geopolitical32%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Houthi forces will conduct at least one confirmed attack (missile, drone, or vessel seizure attempt) on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

geopolitical78%HIT

Russia and Ukraine will sign a comprehensive ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 27% with our higher assessment.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture