China will announce a new export control, sanction, or blacklist action targeting a named US company within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 32% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-06.

Bayesian US-China Trade War Escalation model shows a 0% Fearon bargaining range (structural conflict likely, bearish 60% confidence), consistent with the recently confirmed FCC/Xinjiang tit-for-tat retaliation cycle that remains unresolved.

Probability: 32%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 6in 7d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report at least one single day with 15 or more PLA aircraft incursions into its ADIZ within 14 days.

geopolitical73%HIT

Russia and Ukraine will sign a comprehensive ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 27% with our higher assessment.

geopolitical14%

US will announce the end of the Iranian blockade in the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, diverging from the Polymarket crowd price of 18% with our lower assessment.

geopolitical5%

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China will announce a new export control, sanction, or blacklist action targeting a named US company within 30 days.

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