MISSBrier 0.063

[basis: absence] Searched multiple queries ('G7 strategic petroleum reserve coordination Strait of Hormuz June 2026', 'G7 bilateral energy security agreement oil supply emergency 2026') within the 2026-06-06 to 2026-07-06 evidence window. No official or wire-tier source reported any G7 member announcing emergency SPR coordination or bilateral energy security agreement tied to Hormuz escalation. Only unrelated G7 summit diplomacy articles (Korea peninsula peace, Trump-Lee bilateral meeting) and an 'other'-tier speculative piece about US possibly removing Iranian oil sanctions were found - none confirm the claimed event occurred.

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one G7 member country will announce emergency strategic petroleum reserve coordination or bilateral energy security agreement within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz 67% escalation probability forces coordinated supply chain defense

NEXUS forecast made 2026-06-06 at 25% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-07-09. Brier score 0.063.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Bayesian analysis showing 67% escalation probability and 50% bargaining range, combined with wartime regime requiring energy security coordination. Reference class policy_action/geopolitical has 27% hit rate, adjusting upward due to specific escalation catalyst.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Jul 685d ago
Made: Jun 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Malaysia will announce at least one emergency maritime security measure or naval patrol enhancement in the Strait of Malacca within 14 days as wartime regime energy supply disruption risks force chokepoint protection escalation amid 67% Hormuz escalation probability spillover effects

geopolitical25%EXPIRED

North Korea will announce at least one additional military facility expansion or weapons deployment within 14 days following the confirmed June 4 nuclear facility announcement

geopolitical25%EXPIRED

Malaysia will announce emergency Strait of Malacca patrol enhancements or maritime security measures within 30 days

geopolitical

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At least one G7 member country will announce emergency strategic petroleum reserve coordination or bilateral energy security agreement within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz 67% escalation probability forces coordinated supply chain defense

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