Indonesia will announce emergency fuel import diversification agreement or strategic petroleum reserve expansion within 30 days as ASEAN supply chain vulnerabilities force energy security adaptations

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-30 at 25% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-07-09.

Derived from: ASEAN supply chain vulnerabilities from active thesis plus 67% Hormuz escalation creating regional energy insecurity. Indonesia as largest ASEAN economy faces critical exposure. Base rate for policy_action/geopolitical is 27%, kept near base rate due to red team criticism about signal noise and previous ASEAN prediction partial success only.

Probability

25%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Jun 29109d ago

Made

May 30

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.