Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by December 31, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 17% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-31.

Bayesian Hormuz Crisis analysis shows 67% escalation probability and confirmed wartime incidents (mine deployment, tanker seizures, ADNOC vessel attack) already realized in prior windows; full normalization by year-end is unlikely despite the Fearon 'sufficient bargaining range' framing. Mirrors crowd market 2176270 (19% YES); I hold a lower probability given ongoing confirmed disruption pattern.

Probability: 17%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Dec 31in 93d
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will publicly voice support for or accept an international mediation role in the India-Pakistan Kashmir dispute within 30 days.

geopolitical50%

The US Congress will formally advance (committee vote, floor vote, or signed legislation) comprehensive crypto market structure legislation within 30 days.

geopolitical20%

The Fed will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

geopolitical48%EXPIRED

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Russia will announce a new or expanded energy supply agreement (pipeline, LNG contract, or bilateral deal) with an Asian country (China or India) within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by December 31, 2026.

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