The Fed will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 48% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Derived from: Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot most-likely equilibrium is a hawkish HOLD (not a hike), diverging from the crowd's 53% YES price on a 25bp increase; the July FOMC dissent pattern reflects hawkish pressure but did not produce a hike, suggesting the crowd is overpricing near-term action.

Probability: 48%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's PLA will conduct at least one publicly reported large-scale incursion (20 or more aircraft and/or vessels in a single day) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.

geopolitical69%

Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by December 31, 2026.

geopolitical17%

Israel will conduct a significant new military operation in Gaza or against Hamas/Hezbollah-linked targets around the October 7 anniversary window by 2026-10-14.

geopolitical57%

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The Fed will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

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