China will publicly voice support for or accept an international mediation role in the India-Pakistan Kashmir dispute within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 50% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Nash India-Pakistan Kashmir Escalation equilibrium: 'US chooses Surgical strikes; China chooses Accept international mediation' (mixed, 70% confidence); policy_action/geopolitical reference class hit rate ~20%.

Probability: 50%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US Congress will formally advance (committee vote, floor vote, or signed legislation) comprehensive crypto market structure legislation within 30 days.

geopolitical20%

Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by December 31, 2026.

geopolitical17%

Russia will announce a new or expanded energy supply agreement (pipeline, LNG contract, or bilateral deal) with an Asian country (China or India) within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

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China will publicly voice support for or accept an international mediation role in the India-Pakistan Kashmir dispute within 30 days.

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