The US Congress will formally advance (committee vote, floor vote, or signed legislation) comprehensive crypto market structure legislation within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 20% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Bayesian/Nash Crypto Regulatory Clarity equilibrium: 'US chooses Comprehensive legislation; markets chooses Institutional accumulation' (bullish, 2 stable equilibria, 70% confidence).

Probability: 20%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will publicly voice support for or accept an international mediation role in the India-Pakistan Kashmir dispute within 30 days.

geopolitical50%

Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by December 31, 2026.

geopolitical17%

Russia will announce a new or expanded energy supply agreement (pipeline, LNG contract, or bilateral deal) with an Asian country (China or India) within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

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The US Congress will formally advance (committee vote, floor vote, or signed legislation) comprehensive crypto market structure legislation within 30 days.

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