ConocoPhillips (COP) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days as wartime oil-risk pricing intensifies around the Strait of Hormuz (target above $135.18, 6% from $127.53 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 47% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-29.

Bayesian Hormuz escalation probability 67%; wartime regime direct energy-impact modeling per system constraints

Probability

47%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Sep 29today

Made

Sep 22

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.