MISSBrier 0.130

Data-resolved: COP moved from 134.26 to 131.83 (-1.81%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: above 142.32. Target not reached. High was 141.62.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongCOP

ConocoPhillips (COP) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $142.32, 6% from $134.26 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 36% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.130.

Derived from the confirmed Hormuz disruption and 67% Bayesian escalation probability sustaining Brent above $90/barrel (already confirmed in prior evidence window), benefiting upstream E&P producers with direct crude price leverage.

Probability: 36%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$142.32

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

ConocoPhillips (COP) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days as wartime oil-risk pricing intensifies around the Strait of Hormuz (target above $135.18, 6% from $127.53 at creation)

market47%

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ConocoPhillips (COP) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $142.32, 6% from $134.26 at creation)

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