MISSBrier 0.217

Search results from April 1-15, 2026 show extensive coverage of Strait of Hormuz blockade and energy market disruptions, with multiple articles about market impacts and US-Iran ceasefire developments. However, no specific announcements were found of major commodities exchanges implementing extended trading hours or emergency session protocols. One article mentioned 'Crypto is winning the race to own oil trading after hours as Wintermute launches 24/7 trading' (March 28) but this refers to crypto platforms, not traditional commodities exchanges, and is about expanded cryptocurrency trading rather than emergency protocols. Required: at least 2 exchange announcements, Actual: 0 confirmed announcements, therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 15, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 2 major commodities exchanges will announce extended trading hours or emergency session protocols within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts price discovery mechanisms and forces institutional adaptation to wartime trading conditions

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-01 at 47% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-15. Brier score 0.217.

Derived from: Confirmed Hormuz escalation materializing 67% probability scenario, wartime regime classification requiring market infrastructure adaptation, and reference class of exchange emergency protocols during supply shocks (1973 oil embargo, 1990 Gulf War precedents)

Probability: 47%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 15167d ago
Made: Apr 1

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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At least 2 major commodities exchanges will announce extended trading hours or emergency session protocols within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts price discovery mechanisms and forces institutional adaptation to wartime trading conditions

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