MISSBrier 0.200

Found one article from April 3, 2026 about 'Carriers warned against misuse of force majeure clauses' but no specific announcements of major shipping companies declaring permanent Red Sea route abandonment or force majeure within the April 1-15 window. Extensive searches found no evidence of the required 2 major shipping company announcements. Actual: 0 companies, Required: at least 2 companies, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met

Resolved Apr 15, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 2 major shipping companies will announce permanent Red Sea route abandonment or force majeure declarations within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-01 at 45% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-15. Brier score 0.200.

Derived from: Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations with 81 documented strike waves create permanent security degradation in Red Sea shipping corridor. Multiple sources confirm Middle East escalation disrupting global freight networks (March 27). With Houthi shipping disruptions intensifying during wartime regime and no diplomatic resolution pathway (Iran nuclear 0% bargaining range), shipping companies face structural rather than temporary risk elevation requiring permanent operational adjustments.

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 15167d ago
Made: Apr 1

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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At least 2 major central banks will announce emergency liquidity facilities or coordinated intervention measures within 7 days as wartime regime financial stress tests interbank funding markets

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At least 3 major Asian central banks will announce emergency foreign exchange intervention measures or currency swap line activations within 7 days as regional currency pressures mount from confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions

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At least 2 major shipping companies will announce permanent Red Sea route abandonment or force majeure declarations within 14 days

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