MISSBrier 0.232

Search results show OPEC-related activity during evidence window (April 2 - April 9, 2026) including articles about OPEC+ production increases, Strait of Hormuz crisis impacts, and regional energy market disruptions. However, no specific announcements found of emergency production capacity assessments or force majeure reviews by OPEC+ member countries during this period. Articles discuss general market impacts and production discussions but lack the specific emergency announcements required. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: 2 announcements, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 11, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 2 OPEC+ member countries will announce emergency production capacity assessments or force majeure reviews within 7 days as Strait of Hormuz disruptions force coalition reassessment of supply obligations

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-02 at 48% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-11. Brier score 0.232.

Derived from: OPEC+ Production Decision Bayesian equilibrium showing fragile stability with narrow 38% bargaining range, wartime regime creating supply uncertainty, and actor intelligence showing Iran IRGC active offensive operations. Base rate for policy_action/geopolitical is 32% but wartime supply crisis significantly elevates probability.

Probability: 48%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 9173d ago
Made: Apr 2

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

At least 3 major Asian central banks will announce emergency foreign exchange intervention measures or currency swap line activations within 7 days as regional currency pressures mount from confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions

geopolitical54%MISS

At least 2 major central banks will announce emergency liquidity facilities or coordinated intervention measures within 7 days as wartime regime financial stress tests interbank funding markets

geopolitical38%MISS

At least 2 major shipping companies will announce permanent Red Sea route abandonment or force majeure declarations within 14 days

geopolitical

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At least 2 OPEC+ member countries will announce emergency production capacity assessments or force majeure reviews within 7 days as Strait of Hormuz disruptions force coalition reassessment of supply obligations

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