MISSBrier 0.145

Search for central bank emergency liquidity facilities or coordinated intervention measures during evidence window (April 2 - April 9, 2026) returned 0 results. Despite geopolitical tensions and wartime conditions mentioned in the prediction's grounding, no announcements found of emergency liquidity facilities or coordinated intervention measures by major central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ, etc.) during this specific period. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: 2 announcements, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 11, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 2 major central banks will announce emergency liquidity facilities or coordinated intervention measures within 7 days as wartime regime financial stress tests interbank funding markets

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-02 at 38% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-11. Brier score 0.145.

Derived from: Fearon bargaining failures in Iran-nuclear (0% range) and US-China trade (0% range) scenarios, plus wartime regime creating financial system stress. Three zero-equilibrium scenarios suggest coordinated policy response needed.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 9173d ago
Made: Apr 2

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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At least 2 major central banks will announce emergency liquidity facilities or coordinated intervention measures within 7 days as wartime regime financial stress tests interbank funding markets

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