get_market_price tool returned an ETF-proxy price series for 'BZ' (values ~$15-18) which is inconsistent with actual Brent crude pricing and cannot be used per instrument-mismatch rules. However, multiple independent news reports within the evidence window directly report the actual Brent spot/futures price: CNBC (2026-08-17) 'Brent oil rises above $90 as Iran rules out interim deal extension'; Times of India (2026-08-25) 'Brent crude stays above $90 as Middle East standoff intensifies'; VT Markets (2026-08-28) 'Brent Crude Oil Holds Near $90 as Russian Supply Risks Grow'; Transport Topics (2026-08-18) 'Oil prices top $90 after climbing 2.7% the day before'. These corroborating reports across multiple dates (Aug 17, 18, 25, 28) confirm Brent traded and closed above $90/barrel on at least one (in fact many) trading days within the window, meeting and exceeding the $90 threshold. Actual: >90 (multiple days), Required: >90 on at least one day, condition met.
Resolved Aug 30, 2026
Market
LONG correctBZ
ICE Brent crude oil futures (BZ) will close above $90 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruption (tanker seizures, mine incident) and 67% escalation probability sustain elevated crude pricing despite the Bayesian 'sufficient bargaining range' framing.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-16 at 5% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-08-30. Brier score 0.899.
Confirmed Hormuz harassment/mine/seizure incidents (resolved prediction, 100% score) plus USO closing above $130 in late July before pulling back to $126.60 reference price; Bayesian Hormuz Fearon range 50%/67% escalation probability.
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wartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.