PARTIALBrier 0.010

Data-resolved: UNG moved from 10.31 to 10.57 (2.52%) during 2026-04-27 to 2026-05-11. Target: above 15. Target not reached. High was 11.08.

Resolved May 11, 2026

Market

LONG correctUNG

Natural gas futures (UNG) will close above $15.00 per share on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as European energy rationing accelerates beyond current ECB policy response capacity following confirmed Strait of Hormuz supply disruption

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-27 at 10% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-05-11. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: Wartime regime with confirmed Hormuz escalation probability 67%, Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations documented in intelligence, European energy crisis deepening beyond diplomatic management. Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) in Iran-nuclear scenario removes negotiated resolution pathway. Reference class: percentage_threshold/market shows 50% base rate, but wartime supply disruptions warrant higher confidence.

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: May 11141d ago
Made: Apr 27

Price Target$15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Natural gas futures (UNG) will close above $14.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz closure forces European energy diversification and LNG demand spikes

market10%MISS

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close above $10.95 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market26%MISS

UNG will close below $10.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market18%MISS

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UNG (natural gas ETF) will close at least 5% below its current price of $10.17 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market27%

Natural gas futures (UNG) will close above $15.00 per share on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as European energy rationing accelerates beyond current ECB policy response capacity following confirmed Strait of Hormuz supply disruption

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