MISSBrier 0.032

Data-resolved: UNG moved from 10.56 to 10.41 (-1.42%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: below 10. Target not reached. Low was 9.85.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctUNG

UNG will close below $10.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 18% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.032.

Bayesian European Energy Security equilibrium (bullish, 70% confidence) favors 'EU accelerates renewables; Russia focuses on Asian markets,' implying reduced Western demand pull on US gas benchmarks despite wartime tensions elsewhere.

Probability: 18%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2123d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$10

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close above $10.95 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market26%MISS

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close at least 5% below its current price of $10.17 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market27%

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $11.52), as energy-crisis dynamics from Hormuz tension spill into gas markets

market17%HIT

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UNG will close below $10.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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