MISSBrier 0.074

Data-resolved: UNG, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-14 through 2026-10-14. Target: below 9.66. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 11.22 (2026-10-14).

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongUNG

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close at least 5% below its current price of $10.17 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 27% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-15. Brier score 0.074.

Bayesian European Energy Security equilibrium ('EU accelerates renewables; Russia focuses on Asian markets,' bullish, 70% confidence) reduces urgency for US LNG export flows, pressuring domestic natural gas pricing independent of the oil-driven Hormuz premium.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 142d ago
Made: Sep 14

Price Target$9.66

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

UNG will close below $10.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market18%MISS

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close above $10.95 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market26%MISS

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $11.52), as energy-crisis dynamics from Hormuz tension spill into gas markets

market17%HIT

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UNG (natural gas ETF) will close at least 5% below its current price of $10.17 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

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