Track Record

HITBrier 0.689

Early-confirmed: UNG hit target above 11.52 on 2026-09-24. Current price: 11.55 (started at 10.87).

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

LONG correctUNG

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $11.52), as energy-crisis dynamics from Hormuz tension spill into gas markets

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 17% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.689.

Energy crisis historical-parallel knowledge bank entry combined with Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability 67% and wartime regime direct energy-market impact

Probability: 17%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$11.52

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close at least 5% below its current price of $10.17 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market27%

UNG will close below $10.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market18%MISS

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close above $10.95 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market26%MISS

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UNG (natural gas ETF) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $11.52), as energy-crisis dynamics from Hormuz tension spill into gas markets

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