MISSBrier 0.068

Data-resolved: UNG moved from 10.56 to 10.41 (-1.42%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 10.95. Target not reached. High was 10.60.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongUNG

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close above $10.95 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 26% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.068.

European Energy Security Bayesian equilibrium (EU accelerating renewables, Russia pivoting to Asia) plus approaching autumn/winter demand season and the Chanukah/OPEC+ December convergence signal flag energy sector volatility ahead of schedule.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$10.95

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

UNG will close below $10.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market18%MISS

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close at least 5% below its current price of $10.17 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market27%

UNG (natural gas ETF) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $11.52), as energy-crisis dynamics from Hormuz tension spill into gas markets

market17%HIT

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UNG (natural gas ETF) will close above $10.95 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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