Natural gas futures (UNG) will close above $14.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz closure forces European energy diversification and LNG demand spikes

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-26 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-09. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: Wartime regime with confirmed Strait of Hormuz closure driving Brent above $110 (confirmed March 19-23). European energy security concerns creating structural LNG demand while traditional Middle East supply routes disrupted. Game theory analysis shows Iran diplomatic brinkmanship strategy with 67% escalation probability materialized.

Probability

10%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Apr 9173d ago

Made

Mar 26

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.