Iran will conduct a direct military or paramilitary action in the Strait of Hormuz (mine deployment, vessel seizure, or armed confrontation with a commercial or naval vessel) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-24.

Bayesian Hormuz Crisis assessment shows 67% escalation probability despite a nominally sufficient (50%) bargaining range, with dominant actor types skewing calculating-to-escalatory; wartime regime and Iran-nuclear Fearon failure (0% range) compound tail risk.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 24in 25d
Made: Sep 24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce new sanctions targeting Russia's energy export sector within 30 days.

geopolitical47%

Israel will conduct a publicly confirmed military strike against Hamas or Hezbollah targets in Gaza or Lebanon during the October 7 anniversary window (Oct 1-8, 2026).

geopolitical85%

Hezbollah will launch a rocket, drone, or missile attack against Israeli territory or forces within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

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The United States will publicly announce a formal push for a negotiated settlement framework in the Russia-Ukraine war within 30 days.

geopolitical69%

Iran will conduct a direct military or paramilitary action in the Strait of Hormuz (mine deployment, vessel seizure, or armed confrontation with a commercial or naval vessel) within 30 days.

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