The United States will publicly announce a formal push for a negotiated settlement framework in the Russia-Ukraine war within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 69% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-24.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame scenario shows a stable equilibrium (Russia: negotiate from strength; US: push negotiated settlement, p=91%, Fearon bargaining range 50% - sufficient for agreement, confidence 78%).

Probability: 69%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 24in 10d
Made: Sep 24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will conduct a direct military or paramilitary action in the Strait of Hormuz (mine deployment, vessel seizure, or armed confrontation with a commercial or naval vessel) within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

The United States will announce new sanctions targeting Russia's energy export sector within 30 days.

geopolitical47%

OPEC+ will announce a formal production cut decision at its next ministerial-level statement within 30 days.

geopolitical45%

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The United States will publicly announce a formal push for a negotiated settlement framework in the Russia-Ukraine war within 30 days.

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