Iran will conduct a direct military or paramilitary action in the Strait of Hormuz (vessel seizure, harassment, mine-laying, or similar incident) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-22.

Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis: escalation probability 67%, IRGC actor intelligence showing active escalation mode following loss of senior naval leadership

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 22in 23d
Made: Sep 22

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US Navy will conduct or publicly announce new naval escort or convoy protection operations in the Red Sea within 14 days.

geopolitical70%

Iran will announce or be confirmed to have advanced uranium enrichment beyond current declared levels within 30 days.

geopolitical49%

The Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next scheduled FOMC decision within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

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Iran will conduct a direct military or paramilitary action in the Strait of Hormuz (vessel seizure, harassment, mine-laying, or similar incident) within 30 days.

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