GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) and confirmed Hormuz mine/seizure incidents sustain safe-haven demand beyond the current $402.54 level.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-11 at 23% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-08-20. Brier score 0.596.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian Fearon failure (0% bargaining range, bearish confidence 60%) plus confirmed Strait of Hormuz vessel seizure/mine incidents; extends prior confirmed GLD>$372 trajectory.

Probability

23%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Aug 2535d ago

Made

Aug 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.