MISSBrier 0.282

Data-resolved: GLD moved from 396.36 to 391.69 (-1.18%) during 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-25. Target: above 409. Target not reached. High was 403.65.

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

LONG wrongGLD

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close above $409.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 53% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.282.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining range at 0% (structural conflict likelihood) plus confirmed ongoing Hormuz incidents sustain safe-haven demand; GLD already confirmed above $415 in a prior window, supporting continuation of the safe-haven bid at a level within the 14d expected-move band (383.29-409.43).

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

Price Target$409

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close below $385.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market37%MISS

GLD will close above $418.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market54%MISS

GLD will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, extending safe-haven demand as the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range remains at 0% (structural conflict conditions) amid the confirmed wartime risk-off regime.

market33%MISS

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GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close above $409.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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