MISSBrier 0.292

Data-resolved: GLD moved from 406.77 to 398.38 (-2.06%) during 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-22. Target: above 418. Target not reached. High was 406.56.

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Market

LONG wrongGLD

GLD will close above $418.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 54% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-22. Brier score 0.292.

Iran Nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structurally conflict-prone) combines with the Autumnal Equinox/Erev Yom Kippur convergence (intensity 5/5, historical Yom Kippur War/oil embargo parallel, 2026-09-19) inside the 14-day window, sustaining safe-haven gold demand beyond the current $406.77 level.

Probability: 54%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Price Target$418

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close above $409.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market53%MISS

GLD will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, extending safe-haven demand as the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range remains at 0% (structural conflict conditions) amid the confirmed wartime risk-off regime.

market33%MISS

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close below $385.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market37%MISS

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GLD will close above $418.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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