GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close below $385.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 37% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.134.
Derived from: red-team critique that gold's recent pullback from confirmed $415 peak reflects overbought mean-reversion rather than sustained safe-haven demand, consistent with the noted gap between escalation scores and actual cross-asset pricing behavior.
- Probability
- 37%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 263d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.