MISSBrier 0.134

Data-resolved: GLD moved from 398.77 to 393.41 (-1.34%) during 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-26. Target: below 385. Target not reached. Low was 388.39.

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Market

SHORT correctGLD

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close below $385.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 37% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.134.

Derived from: red-team critique that gold's recent pullback from confirmed $415 peak reflects overbought mean-reversion rather than sustained safe-haven demand, consistent with the noted gap between escalation scores and actual cross-asset pricing behavior.

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 12

Price Target$385

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close above $409.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market53%MISS

GLD will close above $418.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market54%MISS

GLD will close above $412 on at least one trading day within 30 days as safe-haven demand builds around the October 7 and 1973 Oil Embargo anniversary risk window.

market85%

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GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close below $385.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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