MISSBrier 0.107

Data-resolved: GLD moved from 406.75 to 401.17 (-1.37%) during 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-19. Target: above 415. Target not reached. High was 406.56.

Resolved Sep 19, 2026

Market

LONG wrongGLD

GLD will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, extending safe-haven demand as the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range remains at 0% (structural conflict conditions) amid the confirmed wartime risk-off regime.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-05 at 33% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-19. Brier score 0.107.

Derived from: Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon failure (0% bargaining range, bearish 60% confidence market assessment) and current GLD reference price of $406.75 amid confirmed risk-off regime.

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 1925d ago
Made: Sep 5

Price Target$415

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

GLD will close above $418.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market54%MISS

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close above $409.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market53%MISS

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close below $385.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market37%MISS

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GLD will close above $412 on at least one trading day within 30 days as safe-haven demand builds around the October 7 and 1973 Oil Embargo anniversary risk window.

market85%

GLD will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, extending safe-haven demand as the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range remains at 0% (structural conflict conditions) amid the confirmed wartime risk-off regime.

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