GLD will close above $372.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as safe-haven demand builds against the zero-bargaining-range Iran nuclear Fearon failure and broader wartime risk-off equity positioning.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-17 at 17% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-07-21. Brier score 0.696.

Derived from: Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout analysis (0% bargaining range, Fearon structural conflict likelihood, bearish market assessment confidence 60%) combined with confirmed risk-off regime (F&G 38) driving gold accumulation.

Probability

17%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Jul 3160d ago

Made

Jul 17

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.